The import and export data released yesterday by the General Administration of Customs showed that export growth in October continued the sluggish trend. Under the strong domestic demand, import growth rebounded strongly. The monthly trade surplus was $170.33 billion, which was far below market expectations. Economists believe that with the declining trade surplus, the pace of RMB appreciation may slow down.

Yesterday, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar depreciated 122 basis points from the previous trading day to 6.3329. The last high was 6.3198, which was set on November 3. On Tuesday, the spot exchange rate of the renminbi hit a three-week maximum single-day decline.

Overseas non-deliverables market, the RMB one-year NDF one-year NDF reported 6.3370 yesterday, compared with yesterday's middle price, suggesting that one year later, the RMB may depreciate against the US dollar.

In the Hong Kong offshore RMB (CNH) market, the renminbi’s spot exchange rate against the US dollar quoted in the 6.36 range was more “cheap” than the renminbi’s closing price of 6.3459 in the Chinese yuan (CNY) market.

Economists predict that the increase in RMB against the US dollar in 2012 will be reduced from 6% this year to 4%. Appropriately slowing down the pace of RMB appreciation and increasing the flexibility of RMB's two-way fluctuations will help ease pressure on exporters.

The pressure of renminbi appreciation or easing of the Wind data shows that in October China’s total export volume hit a new low for 5 months, while its export growth slowed to a new low of 8 months. Since the outlook for foreign trade has a direct impact on the expected appreciation of the renminbi, market analysts pointed out that the trade surplus and the deceleration of export growth imply that the “inflection point” of RMB devaluation may have come.

In an interview, senior economic engineer Liang Zhaoji of DBS Bank pointed out that the financial crises of 1998, 2001 and 2009 all caused direct decline of Chinese exports. The deterioration of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone will curb demand for Chinese exports. China’s exports are expected to decline further in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first half of 2012, and the pace of renminbi appreciation will slow as the trade surplus shrinks.

Shen Jianguang, chief China economist at Mizuho Securities, believes that the European debt crisis has led to a reduction in external demand, while domestic demand is still strong, which will cause China's trade surplus to continue to decline, reducing the pressure and necessity of RMB appreciation. It is expected that the RMB appreciation against the US dollar will slow down to 4% next year.

UBS chief economist Wang Tao believes that the slowdown in export growth and the narrowing of trade surplus will help China resist external pressure to require the appreciation of the renminbi. It is expected that the renminbi will gradually appreciate against the US dollar and the year-end target price will be 6.2 by the end of 2012. The target price is 6.0.

Although the slowdown in export growth has slowed the appreciation of the renminbi, DBS economist Liang Zhaoji said that the political factor is the potential risk of this forecast. During the 2012 US presidential election, the issue of the RMB exchange rate was once again politicized; the EU may also resort to trade protectionism measures because of economic recession and pretexts and China’s trade deficit continues to expand.

After the conclusion of the G20 summit in Cannes, the 19th APEC informal leadership meeting will be held in Hawaii, USA from November 12th to 13th. The market expects that the appreciation of the renminbi may once again become the focus of debate between the two sides.

There is no fear of a general direction during the year. With the reduction of the trade surplus, the amount of foreign exchange payments will be reduced accordingly. As a result, the pressure of excess liquidity will be eased. Then, will monetary policy relax accordingly? ? Addressing the issue of journalists, Fu Bingtao, deputy director of the macroeconomic and financial research department of the Strategic Management Department of the Agricultural Bank of China, stated: “The foreign exchange funds have little effect on monetary policy, and the liquidity adjustment of foreign exchange funds is more closely related to open market operations, and There is little relationship between the interest rate and the adjustment of the reserve requirement ratio."

Fu Bingtao believes that even if the one-year bill has a fall in interest rates, the rate of decline is relatively small. In the short term, these are just signs and not a sign of policy relaxation. The possibility of a rate cut within the next three months is very small. .

Great Wall Securities expects that in the future, monetary policy will start by increasing new credit supply and open market operations. The adjustment of one-year central bank bill interest rates indicates the possibility of future RRR cuts, but it was introduced from the perspective of preventing policy overshoots during the year. The probability of a decrease in the statutory RRR is relatively small, but it does not rule out the possibility of the central bank adjusting the RRR in the year.

Li Wei, a macroeconomic analyst at Standard Chartered Bank Global Research, also said: "The data for October has not been clearly justified, and the general direction will not change until December."

The report of He Weiwei, a macro researcher at Aerospace Securities, pointed out that since 2009 to 2011, the entire credit supply exceeded 20 trillion yuan, and M2, the index of money stock, was also close to 80 trillion. In general, China's money supply can fully meet the needs of economic development. The relaxation of monetary policy can only be directed and quantified, and the central bank cannot relax monetary policy as it did in late 2008.

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