On Friday (December 30) in the European market, the US dollar index fluctuated to a low of 80.28, and is now within a narrow range around 80.30.

The U.S. dollar performed as strongly as it always did this week. Although it was relatively stable during the majority of this week, it still showed itself as a strong man. The US dollar index hit a new high of 80.85 since January 2011 and is likely to stabilize above the 80.00 mark during the year.

The European debt crisis has continued to deteriorate in the near future, and the US hedge fund function has been strengthened. The U.S. money market funds are entering the largest inflow period since the peak of the financial crisis, indicating that safe-haven investors have more choices of US Treasuries as safe harbors. The fund received 54.9 billion U.S. dollars, and it received another 36.8 billion U.S. dollars in December of the 21st. This is the largest two-month inflow of U.S. money market funds since December 2008 and January 2009.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury sold $30 billion of four-period Treasury bills on Thursday. The target interest rate was 0.000%, indicating that the demand for such short-term bonds with the lowest risk was strong. The US Senate extended its tax cuts by spending and salary taxes for two months; the Federal Reserve may imply keeping long-term ultra-low interest rates at 0-0.25 until 2014.

At the same time, the recent US data performance has attracted attention. Last week's initial jobless claims figures showed that the number of people in the previous week increased by more than the market expectation, and the total number increased to 381,000. However, it still shows that the status of the US labor market is continuously improving. The US second-hand house signing index rose by 7.3% month-on-month in November, the largest increase in 19 months. December Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, better than the average economists expected.

Investors must focus on the minutes of the Fed’s December 13 monetary policy meeting to be announced at 03:00 Beijing time on the next Wednesday (January 4th), which is expected to have a certain impact on the market and will provide investors with insight into the Fed’s new one. The year's monetary policy provides guidance.

After the Fed ended its one-day monetary policy meeting on December 13th, the Fed announced, as expected, that the benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged at 0-0.25%, and reiterated that it would maintain a very low interest rate at least until mid-2013. At the same time, the previous twisting operation plan was maintained and the discount rate was unchanged at 0.75%. To the surprise of the market, the Fed has not announced the establishment of inflation, employment targets and future interest rate forecasts as a communication tool.

As the economic situation in the United States continues to improve, it is expected that the minutes of the Fed meeting will reiterate their remarks on the moderate growth of the U.S. economy and believe that there will be some improvement in the labor market. However, the Fed will emphasize that the unemployment rate is still high, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in November fell to a new low of 8.6% in two and a half years.

In addition, the minutes of the Fed meeting will provide market investors with new views on how decision makers view the fixed time in mid-2013. Federal officials are most worried about the euro zone debt crisis, and that the European debt crisis will constitute the main risk of the current global economic downturn. This also highlights Fed officials’ concern that the weaker economic recovery in the United States will be devastated by the European debt crisis.

In terms of federal funds rate, some analysts believe that in order to boost the fragile economic recovery, the Fed may hint that the interest rate near zero will be maintained after 2014. Low inflation and high unemployment can guarantee very low interest rates for longer.

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